Day 1:
Introduction to Scenario Building and Analysis
Overview of scenario planning: definitions, history, and applications.
Key principles of scenario building: uncertainty, drivers, and trends.
Frameworks for constructing scenarios: qualitative vs. quantitative approaches.
Group exercise: Identifying current uncertainties and potential drivers for future scenarios.
Day 2:
Techniques for Developing Scenarios
Analyzing drivers and trends: identifying critical factors that shape the future.
Mapping scenarios: using tools like SWOT analysis and PESTLE analysis.
Techniques for constructing different types of scenarios: exploratory vs. normative.
Case study analysis: Scenario building in different industries (business, government, and non-profit).
Day 3:
Advanced Scenario Building and Strategic Integration
Developing multiple scenarios and evaluating their plausibility.
Integrating scenario analysis into strategic decision-making processes.
Quantitative methods for scenario modeling and forecasting.
Group exercise: Building a set of scenarios for a real-world case.
Day 4:
Analyzing and Evaluating Scenarios
Assessing the impacts of scenarios on risk, opportunity, and strategic direction.
Analyzing scenario outcomes using decision analysis tools.
Evaluating scenarios for robustness and adaptability.
Group activity: Evaluating scenarios from a risk management perspective.
Day 5:
Applying Scenarios to Organizational Strategy and Policy
Linking scenarios to long-term strategic planning and business resilience.
Utilizing scenarios for policy development in uncertain environments.
Creating actionable strategies based on scenario analysis.
Final group project: Developing a comprehensive scenario plan for a specific industry or organization.
