Day 1:
Foundations of Scenario Planning and Forecasting
Introduction to scenario planning: history, evolution, and key concepts.
Understanding the role of uncertainty in decision-making.
Overview of forecasting techniques: qualitative vs. quantitative approaches.
Case study analysis: Lessons from successful scenario planning implementations.
Day 2:
Analyzing External Factors and Trends
Conducting PESTLE and SWOT analyses to identify drivers of change.
Exploring megatrends and their implications for different industries.
Identifying critical uncertainties and their potential impacts.
Group exercise: Mapping trends and uncertainties for a chosen industry.
Day 3:
Designing Scenarios and Building Models
Step-by-step guide to creating scenario frameworks.
Using cross-impact analysis to assess interdependencies.
Developing narrative-driven scenarios to engage stakeholders.
Hands-on workshop: Crafting scenarios for a hypothetical organization.
Day 4:
Advanced Forecasting Techniques
Introduction to probabilistic forecasting and Monte Carlo simulations.
Leveraging AI and machine learning for predictive modeling.
Integrating qualitative insights with quantitative data.
Ethical considerations in forecasting: Bias, transparency, and accountability.
Day 5:
Implementation and Evaluation
Translating scenarios into actionable strategies and contingency plans.
Communicating findings effectively to diverse audiences.
Measuring the success of scenario planning initiatives.
Final project presentation: Applying course concepts to a real-world challenge.
